Choose a forecast model

Before you start

• A variant whose sales pattern you know well.

Steps

1. Open the Forecast page → click the variant title to open variant detail.
2. Go to the Forecast tab.
3. Look at the History chart — note the demand shape (flat / drifting / trending / seasonal).
4. Use the decision tree:
   • Flat → Average.
   • Slow drift → Moving average or Exponential smoothing.
   • Up / down trend → Linear regression.
   • Annual cycle → Seasonal (Enhanced plan).
   • Two cycles → Double seasonal (Enhanced plan).
   • You don’t know → Auto.
5. Pick the model from the dropdown.
6. Save.

Worked example

My winter coats sell heavily Oct–Feb and almost nothing Apr–Sep. The History chart shows clear yearly seasonality. Pick Seasonal (Enhanced plan).

Common failure modes

Symptom	Likely cause	Fix
Switching model didn’t change suggestions	Variant has less than 30 days of history — Persistence is forced.	Wait for more history.
Auto picks a model you disagree with	Auto sees patterns you don’t.	Override manually if your business knowledge trumps the data; otherwise trust Auto.

See also

• Forecast → Forecast models
• Forecast → Automatic model optimization

Last updated: 19 May 2026